“Trump’s Tariff Policies – Impacts on New Southbound Countries and Implications for Taiwan-NSP Countries” Meeting Minutes

The conference titled Trump’s Tariff Policies – Impacts on New Southbound Countries and Implications for Taiwan-NSP Countries, organized by the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research and supported by the Chinese National Association of Industries, successfully concluded on June 19, 2025. The event was honored to have Counselor on Home Assignment of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Asia-Pacific Department, Oliver Yung-Hui Weng, and Lu Pi-Tai, Deputy Director Industrial Development Administration, MOEA delivering opening remarks. This was followed by presentations from Kristy Tsun-Tzu Hsu (Director of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER), Richard R. C. Shih (Former Ambassador of Taipei Economic and Cultural office in Vietnam), and Kelly Lu (Data Operations Leader of Dun & Bradstreet International Ltd., Taiwan Branch). Their reports addressed the implications of U.S. President Trump’s latest tariff policies on New Southbound countries.

A comprehensive panel discussion joined by two key industry representatives: Anita Lin, Deputy Head of Tax, KPMG in Taiwan, and Harrison Liu, Executive Board Member, Vietnam Manufacturing and Export Processing (Holdings) Limited, Vietnam. They shared insights on the prospects of economic cooperation between Taiwan and New Southbound countries. The conference was held online and livestreamed on YouTube (link), making the content accessible for public viewing to enhance their understanding of industrial issues in the New Southbound countries.

【Counselor Oliver Yung-Hui Weng, Director Tzun-Tzu Hsu, speakers and panelists】

The event began with three presentations, followed by the panel discussion. Kristy Tsun-Tzu Hsu (Director of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER) provided an overview on Trump 2.0 reciprocal tariffs. The policy proposes a flat tariff of 10% or up to 49% of Reciprocal Tariffs on more than 100 countries. Among all regions/subregions, the average tariff burdens on the 11 Southeast Asian nations will reach 30.9%, making these nations the most seriously impacted region if the tariffs are implemented. In the Indochina region, four out of five countries face tariffs exceeding 46%.

Vietnam, in particular, has become a key target of U.S. scrutiny due to its over $100 billion trade surplus with the U.S. in the past 3 consecutive years. The U.S. has launched a 90-day negotiation period with various countries. Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia have begun proposing tariff reductions and expanded procurement of U.S. goods, including agricultural and energy products.

Illicit transshipment has become another major issue accused by the Trump administration. Vietnam is suspected of serving as a key re-export hub for Chinese goods in to the U.S. and has pledged to strengthen enforcement, The U.S. also expects Vietnam to reduce its reliance on Chinese intermediate goods, potentially creating new supply chain challenges for Taiwanese businesses.

On the Taiwan front, CIER research shows that many Taiwanese firms have opted to pause expansion plans in Vietnam, but there has been no request to adjust supply chains thus far, making large-scale realignments unlikely. While the U.S. has granted tariff exemptions for products like laptops and semiconductors, uncertainty remains—particularly as gases and chemicals essential to the semiconductor supply chain are not exempted. Under the Trump 2.0, Taiwanese enterprises face layered pressures from tariffs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts. Future business strategies will likely focus more on Southeast Asia and North America. Despite heightened uncertainty, only through early planning and risk diversification can companies maintain their competitive edge in the evolving global trade landscape.

【The Presentation of Kristy Tsun-Tzu Hsu (Director of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center, CIER)】

Next, Richard R. C. Shih (Former Ambassador of Taipei Economic and Cultural office in Vietnam) pointed out that Vietnam demonstrated strong adaptability and a multifaceted strategic approach in facing the impact of Trump 2.0 tariff policies. U.S.-Vietnam relations have continued to warm. Since the two countries upgraded their relationship to “comprehensive strategic partnership” in 2023, cooperation has rapidly expanded. Vietnam is considering the acquisition of U.S. military equipment such as F-16 fighter jets and Boeing aircraft, and even agreeing to join the Starlink satellite constellation initiative. It has also actively responded to U.S. concerns over supply chain restructuring and rules of origin enforcement by transferring the authority for issuing certificates of origin to government agencies and launching large-scale raids against counterfeit goods and Chinese imports. This has resulted in the closure of many small businesses, demonstrating the government's firm determination in enforcement.

On the economic front, Vietnam is promoting large-scale domestic demand expansion to hedge against external trade and investment uncertainties. Major infrastructure projects, such as the North–South high-speed railway and Ho Chi Minh City Metro, represent the government’s aim at boosting internal resilience. Politically, the government is undergoing organizational reforms and anti-corruption campaigns. Diplomatically, Vietnam is displaying strategic flexibility—welcoming visits from U.S. aircraft carriers while also joining the BRICS partnership in June, reflecting its intent to balance relations between the U.S. and China. Overall, Vietnam has not passively endured the challenges of Trump 2.0. Instead, it has leveraged pressure into momentum, transforming crisis into opportunity by accelerating institutional and industrial upgrades.

【The Presentation of Richard R. C. Shih (Former Ambassador of Taipei Economic and Cultural office in Vietnam)】

Finally, Kelly Lu (Data Operations Leader of Dun & Bradstreet International Ltd., Taiwan Branch) offered Taiwanese companies specific risk assessments and strategic recommendations across market, industry, and operational dimensions, drawing from empirical data collected by D&B’s 256 offices worldwide. From a market perspective, the U.S. is grappling with a global trade deficit of approximately $1.2 trillion, particularly from the Asia-Pacific region. When measuring the trade deficit/surplus with U.S. as a share of each country’s GDP, Vietnam emerges as the highest, with a ratio close to 25%, due to its intensive trade relationship with the U.S. Taiwan and Thailand rank in the mid-range. According to D&B’s quarterly business optimism insights, Taiwan’s overall business optimism index fell by 25%, while the ICT sector saw a sharp 36.5% decline in confidence regarding future sales prices—highlighting the severity of the impact from tariff pressures and supply chain uncertainty.

On the industry side, Taiwan’s top three U.S.-dependent export sectors are ICT, electronic components, and metal products, which together account for over 70% of Taiwanese exports to the U.S. Among them, the metal industry—particularly steel and aluminum—faces the brunt of high tariff exposure. In response, companies must consider both product upgrading and market diversification. When identifying emerging markets for potential expansion, Taiwanese firms have shown growing interest in Malaysia, Singapore, India, and Mexico. Among them, India stands out due to strong investor confidence, relatively low U.S. export tariffs, and a clear trend toward manufacturing relocation. From an operational perspective, Taiwanese companies must strengthen their data governance, improve risk identification, and foster innovation capacity. D&B encourages firms to adopt a data-driven transformation strategy, structured around three steps: monitoring market trends, accurately assessing risks, and proactively driving innovation and digital transformation. By doing so, businesses can better navigate uncertainty and seize emerging trade opportunities in the Trump 2.0.

【The Presentation of Kelly Lu (Data Operations Leader of Dun & Bradstreet International Ltd., Taiwan Branch)】

During the panel discussion, the Center invited three speakers and two industry representatives to join the moderator and online audience in an in-depth dialogue on the Trump administration’s tariff policy and its impact on Taiwanese businesses. The following summarizes the key remarks made by the two industry representatives. Anita Lin, Deputy Head of Tax, KPMG in Taiwan noted that while the original U.S.-China trade war prompted companies to shift their supply chains to Southeast Asia, the new round of reciprocal tariffs now targets global trade. This means that simply relocating production bases no longer effectively mitigates tariff risks. In the short term, Lin advised companies to proactively monitor their products, countries of origin, and Harmonized System codes to assess whether they fall under the new tariff restrictions. In the medium to long term, she recommended utilizing mechanisms like the “first sale rule” or other pricing strategies to reduce the customs valuation. Moreover, companies should strengthen supply chain visibility and diversification, such as by geographically dispersing production and enhancing information transparency.

Following this, Harrison Liu, Executive Board Member, Vietnam Manufacturing and Export Processing (Holdings) Limited, Vietnam, shared that while his company derives half of its Vietnam revenue from exports to Southeast Asia and Europe—thus facing limited direct impact from the U.S.—the Taiwanese vehicle parts industry as a whole is significantly affected. After-sales components such as bumpers and exterior plastic parts could be subject to tariffs as high as 32%, squeezing export pricing and profit margins. Liu emphasized that the tariff impact is a “dynamic event”, with many outcomes still uncertain. He called for flexible strategic adjustments in response to evolving conditions. Additionally, Vietnam’s domestic demand has weakened in 2025, with Q1 motorcycle sales dropping to 3-5%, reflecting the chain reaction from foreign factories’ production cuts or suspensions—ultimately affecting employment and consumer spending. Currently, many Taiwanese firms are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding whether the reciprocal tariffs will be lifted after the 90-day negotiation period. In the meantime, facing order instability, businesses must first adjust capacity and cut operational costs, then align with local government policies, and finally implement order reallocation strategies to respond to shipment delays requested by clients.

【Director Kristy Tzun-Tzu Hsu with the speakers and panelists】

The Trump’s Tariff Policies – Impacts on New Southbound Countries and Implications for Taiwan-NSP Countries concluded successfully. CIER remains committed to serving as a key platform connecting the public, private, and academic sectors on critical Southeast Asian issues. The Center will continue to organize the Southeast Asia Economic and Trade Promotion Platform Meetings in response to evolving international political and economic developments, as well as major Southeast Asian topics, with the aim of fostering mutual exchange and understanding within Taiwan’s knowledge community.

For more information about the Center and our upcoming events, please visit the official website of the Taiwan-ASEAN Studies Center (link) or follow our official Facebook page (link).